US-China Relations Updates

Chinese President Xi Jinping has repeatedly stated that he will not give up the idea of reunifying Taiwan with China through military means, and tensions across the Taiwan Strait have been escalating. Recently, a German scholar analyzed that Beijing may launch an attack on Taiwan in early 2025, taking advantage of the period after the 2024 US presidential election but before the new administration takes office.

According to Deutsche Welle, May-Britt Stumbaum, a scholar at the Center for International SecurityStudies (CISS) at the University of Munich, predicted in an interview with the Munich Courier that Beijing may attack Taiwan in January 2025, with the United States intervening.

Stumbaum believes that the next two years are crucial for Taiwan, and Chinese leaders first want to wait for Taiwan’s presidential election in January next year, hoping that the pro-Beijing Kuomintang can win. “China will strengthen its intimidation until the Taiwanese people eventually say: it’s better to be controlled by Beijing than to risk war,” she said. Stumbaum believes that if Beijing fails to achieve this goal, it will erode Taiwan’s system from within through spreading false information, infiltration, and other means.

Furthermore, Stumbaum believes that the 2024 US presidential election will also have a significant impact because after the new president is elected, it will not be until January of the following year that he/she officially takes office and announces new appointments. “In recent years, we have seen that in such situations, the United States often has little action capability within a few months. Many high-level officials leave before the power transition, and senior administrative and ambassadorial positions remain vacant for a long time. The US may be very weak in early 2025, and Xi Jinping will take advantage of this,” she said.

Stumbaum predicts that China may attack Taiwan in January 2025: “If China decides to militarily attack Taiwan, then January 2025 provides a suitable opportunity for invasion, not only because of the aftermath of the US election but also because it is easiest to cross the Taiwan Strait in winter when the sea is calm. In addition, the Chinese Lunar New Year in 2025 is in January, and billions of people will be traveling across the country, making it difficult for satellites to detect large-scale military deployments. At that time, China only needs a full moon and good weather.”

Stumbaum believes that if Beijing decides to attack Taiwan, it will have to deploy a large number of troops, first trying to occupy strategic locations, especially the government’s location and critical infrastructure control centers. China will also accept a very high cost in terms of casualties, but she believes that this is not the main consideration for China: “In China, people are accustomed to making huge sacrifices. After Beijing lifted the COVID-19 measures, an estimated 1.6 million people died within four weeks. The economic consequences of invading Taiwan will also be enormous. The US estimates that China’s GDP will plummet by 9% due to sanctions. But even such consequences will be acceptable to China.”